But the points do matter. The rally does not make any sense to me.

The US Federal Government is inoperable due to executive sabotage. As a consequence we don't expect to have actual jobs data this week, but instead ADP publishes a pretty lousy report on the jobs data. Consumer spending is still up I guess, nobody seems to really know why however.

In light of all this, it seems like the entire "bet" right now on Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve is going to have to cut more, and that means equities are more valuable somehow?

There's a lot of commentary that I will read where analysts are continuing to "be surprised" by overpriced valuations of US equities. While I certainly believe that they are over-priced in lots of areas, when I look at the USD compared to the Euro, there is a pretty clear signal to read.

If you look back a little further, the dollar hasn't been this weak since... well, the last time this guy was President.

Nonetheless, when you look at equities, number go up! There is such simultaneous pessimism and optimism in the market.

Today the gains were meager but green is green. I noticed when doing some research last night that SMCI had been on quite a rally over the previous day. I could not really pin down a good solid reason, except for some sporadic "buy the dip!" commentary.

Since SMCI seems to be appreciated by many retail investors, it's prone to sharp up ticks followed by a retreat to a support level. Fortunately I was able to get in and out of my short puts in time because, as mentioned, the rules don't make much sense anymore as the market in general continued to rally.

The difference between winning and losing in that particular position was less than an hour.

Screwy all around.

Log

• Woke up expecting SMCI to flop down, flopped a little bit and was able to get out on the short put before they raised back up. Phew. Probably a good thing I had a bunch of other stuff to do right after the open.

Portfolio